Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
