Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
