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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd